|
Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on May 21, 2009 9:58:04 GMT
Does anyone have anything to say about the coming elections: Local, European and Dáil by-elections in June or the Udaras na Gaeltachta elections at the end of the year?
|
|
|
Post by hibernicus on May 21, 2009 11:23:07 GMT
I vote in Northern Ireland so this doesn't apply to me. I hope Kathy Sinnott gets re-elected in Munster; are the pro-life organisations on the ground (such as they are) doing anything for her? I'm worried that if Caroline Simons does badly in Dublin this will be presented as a big defeat for the pro-life cause and encourage the pressure which is building up in certain official quarters for a move towards legalising abortion in the Republic. If Emmanuel Sweeney is the same individual who was deputy leader of Richard Greene's defunct Muintir na h-Eireann party I wouldn't touch him with a bargepole. Those who remember the 1995 divorce referendum will know why. Is Christian Solidarity even running candidates? They seem to come out only once every 5 years for Dail elections.
|
|
|
Post by hibernicus on May 21, 2009 11:31:31 GMT
I see the NI parties are included - I'll think it over.
|
|
|
Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on May 21, 2009 14:20:07 GMT
I will begin by responding to Hibernicus on Christian Solidarity and Mr Sweeny.
Christian Solidarity are running a candidate in the Dublin Central by-election. This is more than a waste of time; it is counter productive. If the CSP were any good, they would have identified potential candidates for the local elections a long time ago and targeted seats - possibly at town council level rather than county or city council first - and then tried to build. But they never listened to this. They don't realise politics is more than just a hobby - it is a very serious business and people do not vote on the basis of agreement with one or two hot issues. Especially if they see evidence of inaction on a lot of other things.
As for Emmanuel Sweeney, I well remember his disgusting outburst prior to the 1995 divorce referendum, which may well have influenced the final result given how narrow it was. It appears this clown doesn't learn. But, Hibernicus, can you remember back in 1991 when the Christian Democrats were launched by him? He had proposals like reducing the opening hours of pubs and opening embassies in Cardiff and Edinburgh. This stole the thunder of a more serious (though ultimately ineffective group) group who opened as the Christian Principles Party (they planned to launch as Christian Democrats). Later they were persuaded to adopt the name Christian Centrist Party and they mutated into Christian Solidarity. Well, whatever chance it had with Ger Casey, they sunk without him.
|
|
|
Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on May 21, 2009 14:51:28 GMT
I think there is an expectation that Fianna Fáil is going to be hammered in this election, followed by the deposal of Brian Cowen, and Fine Gael will do very well, carrying them towards power after the next election which will be very soon.
This is a caricature, and I don't know if it is the case absolutely. I'll tell you why.
The most important test is the two by-elections. These usually do not go the way of governments in the best of circumstances and FF can write them off. However, the main opposition parties may only take one of the two seats - Dublin South. The most prominent candidates in Dublin Central are Cllr Christy Burke of SF and the independent Cllr Maureen O'Sullivan was close to the late Tony Gregory. FG's Senator Paschal Donohue is going to be faced with a problem more typical of SF than FG but reversed here: where are FG transfers come from in a leftist-republican area where FG has such a small support base? Ivana Bacik (Labour) and Maurice Aherne (FF) are not at the races, and forget the CSP. With Dublin South it is more clear cut. Whatever about the credibility of George Lee's claims about being a neutral RTE correspondent up to the last minute or his lack of eloquence on issues outside economics, he is the hot favourite. But I would not rule out Labour's Senator Alex White who has put a lot of groundwork into this constituency.
With regard to Europe, this best illustrates my opening suggestion. In spite of Eoin Ryan's problems in Dublin, he is likely to hold the seat against Mary Lou McDonald's challenge. Does anyone imagine that Gay Mitchell's voters will transfer to her just to spite FF or that Proinsias de Rossa's hatred of SF will have no influence over Labour votes? There seems to be no trouble for FF holding one out of three in the other constituencies which will leave them with 4 out of 12. FG on the other hand will most likely loose their 2nd East seat to Labour's Nessa Childers (who will also benefit from her FF pedigree). The question mark is over Cathy Sinnnott in the South and Marion Harkin in the North West. In the South, Cathy Sinnott is facing a challenge from Labour's Alan Kelly, SF's pin-up girl Toiréasa Ferris (I though Treasa was a better Irish for Teresa) and FG's Colm Burke (likely to loose the seat to his running mate, ex-GAA pres Seán Kelly). I think the Labour man the only likely candidate to unseat Cathy Sinnott. In the North-West, Declan Ganley should benefit from being the only Galway based candidate where most are in the North West (as in Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo and Cavan). The entry of Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher kills any hope either Paschal Mooney or SF's Padraig MacLochlainn might have had. I'd call it Gallagher (FF); Higgins (FG) and most likely Harkin (Ind). South: Crowley (FF); Kelly (FG) and Sinnott likely to retain seat over challenge from Labour's Kelly; East: McGuinness (FG); Aylward (FF) and Labour's Childers' likely gain from FG's Phelan; and Dublin Mitchell (FG); de Rossa (Lab) and Ryan (FF) likely to hold out against McDonald's challenge. That's 4 FG, 4 FF, 2 Labour and 2 independents, with a chance of a Labour gain from independents or FF loss to SF. The current state is 4 FF; 5 FG; 1 Labour; 1 SF and 2 independent (Dublin loses a seat). As for the North, can Hibernicus tell us anything? Presumably SF will hold the seat, but will UUP retain and DUP regain from TUV and what of the SDLP's chances?
With the local elections, one must remember 2004 was an exceptionally bad outing for FF and an exceptionally good one for FG and SF. This sort of thing will repeat itself, but I am not sure it will make much difference from the point of view of representation. I wonder if the SF success will hold, for example. So it might not be all bad news for FF. I think the Greens will suffer, but not because of the economy, but because the most motivated and committed Greens (eg Patricia McKenna) have become disgusted with their party's compromises in government and will not go out to seek votes with the same fire and energy as they did in the past and the band wagen effect in the party will grind to a halt.
Heavy losses by the Greens, in the circumstances I outline will be sufficient motivation to keep the Government in power for a longer rather than a shorter time. So in summary, I am losing confidence in some of our political correspondents that they don't see the possibilities. And if FF's losses at local elections aren't savage, I think Cowen will have some more time at the top.
|
|
|
Post by hibernicus on May 21, 2009 18:17:55 GMT
In the North, Sinn Fein are pretty sure of holding their seat. The big unknown factor is how the Unionist vote will divide. There is supposed to be some discontent with Diane Dodds because of the "dynasty factor" and Jim Allister seems to be attracting some sympathy as man of principle rather than a wrecker (especially as there is not much likelihood that he could actually wreck the settlement). Nicholson, though remarkably lacklustre, is competing as the "change" candidate because of the Tory-UUP pact (that's how the Tories market themselves in the UK). I suspect the unionist vote will splinter and a nationalist will actually get the most first preferences, though it would be a big upset if the nationalists took two seats. The SDLP have a strong candidate but the big question for him and for Nicholson will be whether the votes are there any more. I haven't seen any opinion polls yet, and NI opinion polls traditionally understate support for extreme candidates. My guess would be a three-way UUP-TUV-SDLP fight for the last two seats, with Allister shading it. But this is all guesswork and based on very little substance. I really don't know which of them would be best, but wild horses would not make me vote for SF. The herbivorous small parties have no chance and are only repositories for protest votes. Here's holding my nose on polling day...
|
|
|
Post by hibernicus on May 21, 2009 18:19:09 GMT
I have done some checking on the Net and it is the same Emmanuel Sweeney. He's standing for Pembroke-Rathmines in the local elections as well as for the Euro seat.
|
|
|
Post by Harris on May 22, 2009 0:03:46 GMT
I am very disillusioned with all the political parties right now.
|
|
|
Post by guillaume on May 22, 2009 8:31:21 GMT
I am very disillusioned with all the political parties right now. me too. I am might be French but I got the right to vote to any Irish elections. Being in the north for a good while, I have to say I voted Sin Fein couple of times. Then I realised they were quite extreme left. Pity ! This party sounded pretty good to me. FF and FG - to me - are totally corrupted. Green, forget it. Labour, no way. So, I would vote for Libertas. But with no passion, no love and no illusion. Just to say "zut alors" to biffo and his army. ;D
|
|
|
Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on May 22, 2009 8:41:54 GMT
I am very disillusioned with all the political parties right now. me too. I absolutely understand this position, but I regard it as important to vote, even just to register a protest.
|
|
|
Post by guillaume on May 22, 2009 8:43:37 GMT
I think there is an expectation that Fianna Fáil is going to be hammered in this election, followed by the deposal of Brian Cowen, and Fine Gael will do very well, carrying them towards power after the next election which will be very soon. Yes, i hope so. Never liked Cowen at the first place. But if FG wins, it won't be a vote FOR FG but an expression of a vote against FF and/or the government in place. The fine Irish People will think FG will change everything, but I doubt that. It is this SAME government (under FF management) which only a few months ago, under Bertie Ahern, was telling us that unemployment was a thing of the past, that all irish people were getting rich, that money was raining for all and blablabla.... Bullshit, of course. The distinction between poor and rich is ever than never in this country. Thanks to FF management.
|
|
|
Post by Askel McThurkill on May 22, 2009 10:10:53 GMT
I am very disillusioned with all the political parties right now. me too. Make that three of us.
|
|
|
Post by hibernicus on May 22, 2009 12:07:27 GMT
There is a religious duty to vote, however unappetising the alternatives on offer. One point to bear in mind, by the way, is that if Fianna Fail are crushed and there is a Fine Gael-Labour coalition, I think we will proably see a wave of "liberalising" legislation as we did in the early 1990s when Labour were last in government. Fianna Fail though utterly hypocritical do recognise a degree of social conservatism among their supporters (mainly based on inertia, and in older voters) and are prepared to make the odd gesture to appease it (so long as it does not antagonise the better-off secularised middle-class and upper working-class voters who are the real swing element). The liberal agenda is partly driven by demographics as the older generations whose formative experiences were pre-Vatican II (or, to a lesser extent, pre-Mary Robinson) die of and are replaced by younger cohorts. The scandals are hastening the secularisation process (and, I blush as a Catholic to say it, the two are linked in another way - because so many devout Catholics saw covering up this stuff as part of fidelity to the Church, we probably would never have learned the full horror if there had not been a degree of secularisation to begin with.) I suspect that at the next general election there will be a big clear-out of older TDs and a strong intake of Bacik types who think that legislation fo rabortion is the logical next step in the liberal agenda and who have taken on board the Fintan O'Toole-Mary Raftery view that church-run schools and hospitals should become state property to complete the process of secularisation (thought he clergy have been industriously secularising them anyway). Given that most Irish politicians are opportunists and parish-pump types, a group of determined ideologues can have an impact out of all proportion to their numbers. We saw this with the widespread influence of the Stickies in the 80s, we saw it with the PDs and economic liberalisation, we're going to see it again soon.
|
|
|
Post by hibernicus on May 22, 2009 12:31:36 GMT
In relation to the CPP and its evolution: The Christian Solidarity Party was formed out of a merger between the CPP and Norah Bennis' Solidarity. I think both groups suffered from swelled-head leaderitis; the people at the head were more interested in creating a high public profile for themselves than building an organisation at the grassroots. At one point Bennis insisted in putting up a candidate in a Munster by-election although the CPP or whatever it called itself at the time already had candidates in the field; both got negligible votes and her intervention only confused people and weakened the impact of the CSP. My impression at a great distance (I wasn't resident in Dublin) is that Ger Casey had many of the same problems. Do you remember when he stood in the Dublin West by-election, a contest which the IRISH FAMILY and Casey himself proclaimed would mark as great a turning-point for Ireland as Count Plunkett's Sinn Fein victory in North Roscommon and would see him head the poll? Thousands of pounds which could have been used to develop the party apparatus were squandered on an American-style campaign, he got just over 900 votes, and whatever was gained was thrown away by the absence of any attempt to cultivate the constituency afterwards and build a base for subsequent elections. If the CSP were going to make a breakthrough, it wouldn't have been in Dublin West, dominated by 1960s-vintage estates which were more secularised than the older working-class areas in the city centre, and where the liberals won majorities or near-majorities in the 1980s referenda. I also get the impression from my contacts who may of course have their own axes to grind that at the grassroots both groups were run as prayer-groups. If you had a meeting which it was known in advance could only last for an hour, 20 minutes would be spent reciting the Rosary and anyone who suggested a shorter prayer was denounced as being ashamed to be Catholic. A group of two or three would dominate proceedings, and policy debate was brushed aside; the meeting was then expected to endorse whatever came into the leaders' heads'. Other members were not permitted to contribute anything and then drifted away. Muintir na h-Eireann for a time seemed a more serious proposition, if you could swallow Richard Greene's ultra-republican politics. (I myself am as near to being an unionist as makes no difference, but the essence of single-issue politics is forming alliances with people with whom you disagree on other matters - within limits, of course; no consideration would make me vote for a nazi or a Trot.) It did have a leader who knew something about politics and was an elected representative. The big problem, or so I gather from people who were in it, was that it was run as an autocracy (apparently the wretched Emmanuel Sweeney was not elected deputy leader by the members but simply imposed by Greene, who may have had his reasons but did not deign to inform the other members of them) leading in due time to the usual discontent in the ranks, the mutiny of the unconsulted, and the creation of two splinters, pro and anti-Greene, both of which soon vanished. Dana might have been the locus for a wider party, if she had been able to break through into Dail politics or create wider party structures (and if the movement hadn't split over the 2002 referendum; I think Dana's position on that was mistaken, but I heard of people who wouldn't work for her in the 2004 Euro election because of it, which was suicidal - you work with what you have.) Does Kathy Sinnott have much in the way of party structure? I beleive she has nominated pro-lifers as her Euro-substitutes. If she gets in again some attempt should be made to develop other candidates in association with her. If I was in the Republic I would probably vote Libertas (or Sinnott in Munster) but with a heavy heart. Gantley is such a mystery man and there are so many odd figures on his bandwagon. I think the idea of making Euro-structures more transparent is a good one (but then I actually think an European federation would be a good thing - if it actually was a federation with the competencies of states and centre clearly delineated) but whether he is the man to do it I don't know. After him I'd transfer to whichever FF or FG candidate is less obnoxious.
|
|
|
Post by hibernicus on May 22, 2009 13:36:57 GMT
By the way, if I was in Dublin Central I would probably cast a protest vote for the CSP in the knowledge that the wonder of PR would enable me to transfer my vote to a serious candidate.
|
|