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Post by assisi on Feb 2, 2024 19:58:14 GMT
I sincerely hope for no further advances by Russia and don't think they will advance further. Putin has been in charge a long time, it would seem weird for him to wait until his old age to start a wholesale occupation attempt of Europe. I do think that it is the West, headed by the U.S. that has provoked the war.
I think that the war in Ukraine is yet another 'Balance of Power' war where the U.S. is staking its claim as the champion of a new global power based on 'Liberal Democracy' and is trying to weaken or eliminate an obvious competitor in Russia.
As regards the state of the respective armies of Russia, the U.S. and Europe, if they are all in a sorry state, then they cancel each other's potential advantages on the field. Perhaps it is the army or nation with the best technology, such as drones and satellite access, that would prevail.
My worry would be that any side could use false flag incidents to initiate further war. Trust in mainstream media is at an all time low, so no-one can be sure of the truth anymore, at least in the short term.
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Fatima
Feb 2, 2024 20:03:43 GMT
Post by Young Ireland on Feb 2, 2024 20:03:43 GMT
Personally, I agree with you. I don't think either Russia or China have the appetite for war. But the sort of articles I have been reading by seasoned foreign and security correspondents suggest otherwise and it's scary to think about. I just hope we are right and they are wrong. I agree that as things stand, Russia won't dare risk nuclear annhilation by directly taking on NATO. China attacking Taiwan is a lot more likely simply because it has the advantage in terms of power projection if the weather conditions are right (which is not a guarantee). If however, Trump decides to withdraw from NATO, then a Russian invasion of Europe becomes much more likely as it can withstand France and Britain's nuclear arsenals. It's this scenario that has many military leaders in Europe scrambling (notice that they say that an invasion is a possibility between five and twenty years).
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Post by hibernicus on Feb 3, 2024 1:12:27 GMT
It is not so weird that Putin should get more reckless as he gets old. It's a fairly common pattern for autocrats to lose touch with reality because fewer people dare bring them bad news and they become less willing to hear it and more inclined to believe their own propaganda. They may also want to deal with major problems before they go so as to counter the perception that the autocrat won't be around much longer and it is therefore necessary to plan for all contingencies... Personally, I've been seriously worried for a long time that Russia would use nuclear weapons because (a) they've already crossed a major red line by invading a sovereign state (b) Putin has publicly committed himself to the proposition that not only Ukrainian sovereignty, but the existence of a separate Ukrainian identity is incompatible with Russian security. (c) The ukrainian government share the belief that it's an all-or-nothing conflict, which can only be resolved by the fall of Putin and the breakup of Russia (d) If Putin falls, his physical safety and that of his family is on the line; those are the circumstances under which the Samson option comes into play. - OTOH even if Putin gave such an order it might not be obeyed, and there are rumours that China has a veto over Russian nuclear use, given Russia's dependence on China. Certainly we all need to pray, not least for the Ukrainians who are in a bad place whatever the outcome. I hope I'm too pess
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