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Post by hibernicus on May 10, 2010 13:01:19 GMT
Oh, and the SNP did not make its hoped-for gains; partly because it's in government in Holyrood so doesn't get the same protest vote, partly because Gordon Brown is quite popular with Scottish Labour voters who think he's being unfairly attcked by the englsih media as a Scot. The failure of the tories to pick up any more Scots seats (in contrast to their 5 gains in wales) shows how marginal they ahve become and how out of synch the Scottish/England and Wales party systems are. Without the Scots, Cameron would have an overall majority.
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Post by Askel McThurkill on May 11, 2010 10:52:10 GMT
The Scottish situation is new, but resembles something which could conceivably happen in Germany - for example, when Helmut Kohl led a CDU-CSU-FDP coalition in Bonn and subsequently in Berlin, while the SDP were in government in North Rhine-Westphalia and in Rhineland-Palatinate, or when Schroeder led a SDP-Green coalition in Berlin and the CSU were in power in Bavaria. It can be very strange for voters to choose between two government parties, especially when a huge degree of power is delegated to state governments. In a city like Munich, it is not unusual that a lot of decisions are taken by an SPD controlled city council and mayor, making for a further layer.
Anyway, peace time coalition is almost the norm throughout Europe, but it is a new experience in Britain and the parties are showing that they are not used to it.
Not sorry to see Peter Robinson defeated, though a few cans of worms might be opened in the DUP. UUP seems gone - however, both the TUV and UUP will concentrate on next year's Assembly elections. SDLP very much alive. This is first time the Alliance has an MP and it is unbelievable Belfast returns one unionist and two nationalists. South Belfast seems to be Alasdair McDonnell's for keeps (last time, I thought he'd hold it for one term only) and the figures in North Belfast have moved considerably in Gerry Kelly's direction. If this Parliament lasts four years (doubtful), I would rate North Belfast as a seat to watch next time round. The most marginal nationalist seat will be Fermanagh-South Tyrone. Hibernicus, remind me, this seat was held by Frank Maguire, Bobby Sands and Owen Carron before Ken McGuinness took it for the UUP at a time when Mid-Ulster, South Down and Newry and Armagh were solidly Unionist territory (even the new constituency of West Tyrone was originally held by a Unionist) and before population shifts became apparent in North and South Belfast. Is there any reason why the even population balance is remaining constant in Fermanagh South-Tyrone?
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Post by hibernicus on May 11, 2010 13:07:50 GMT
One difference, Askell, is that the opposition governments in German states were not actiely committed to breaking up the state as the SNP is.
Some TUV are saying the game is up and the party should dissolve. their whole strategy was based on getting enough MLAs to qualify for a Cabinet position and then refusing to take it, which would force the other unionists to collapse the executive or serve in an unionist-dominated government. Allister does not fancy being a powerless one-man band at Stormont.
MacDonnell is in a stronger position but he may not be as secure as he seems if the unionist parties merge.
FST has always had a nationalist majority - the unionists only ever took it on a split vote. (Harry West actually held it for a few months in 1974 as an unionist before Maguire). The reason why it is more stable than Belfast may be that people tend not to migrate into it to any great extent, and FST is too far from Belfast to be affected by the "overspill" which accounts for part of the growing nationalist vote in Upper Bann and to a lesser extent in other constituencies near Belfast. in Belfast it is also the case that nationalists are more reluctant to move out of the city than unionists and the higher Catholic birthrate in past decades has also shifted the balance; it is pretty notorious that there is a lot of vacant housing in traditionally Protestant working-class areas in West and North Belfast while adjoining Catholic areas are crowded.
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Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on May 11, 2010 13:28:28 GMT
Hibernicus is correct on the distinction between Scotland and Germany. There is a small secessionist movement in Bavaria, but their influence is negligible.
Britain has to come to terms with something else taken for granted across Europe - coalition government. And it will become the norm if the Liberal Democrats get either party to deliver on PR. In fact I think, to return to the German analogy, they want to look at the position the FDP, the Free Democrats (German liberals) were in Germany until Shroeder went into government with the Greens - they permanently held the balance of power and remained in government while their bigger partners alternated between CDU-CSU and SDP. Des O'Malley had this in mind when he founded the Progressive Democrats.
To pursue the German analogy further, I recall the German general election of 2004. Germany was in a bad recession and the SDP-Green coalition were deeply unpopular and were losing control of state governments in places like Westphalia and the Rhineland and Saar, where they are traditionally strong and getting hammered in places like Bavaria, where they are traditionally weak. In spite of that, the result of the general election was inconclusive and the CDU-CSU had to form a coalition with the SPD (interesting that the idea of a Conservative-Labour coalition doesn't arise). Schroeder was personally very popular (unlike Brown, Scots affection notwithstanding), but this destroyed his career and made that of Angela Merkel).
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Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on May 11, 2010 13:43:59 GMT
Hibernicus, would it be fair to say that there has been something of a nationalist domino effect in Northern Ireland?
Askel could have illustrated the case better. I remember the North had two nationalist MPs after the 1983 election - John Hume (Foyle - now held by Mark Durkan) and Gerry Adams (West Belfast - changing with Joe Hendron from 1992-7). I know that FST and Mid-Ulster had been held by nationalists previously. But there has been a gradual spread. First Newry & Armagh (Séamus Mallon at the time of the Anglo-Irish Agreement by-elections, subsequently Conor Murphy); then South Down (Eddie McGrady in 1988; now Margaret Ritchie); Mid-Ulster (Martin McGuinness, 1997); West Tyrone (Pat Doherty 2001); Fermanagh-South Tyrone (Michelle Gildernew 2001); South Belfast (Alasdair McDonnell 2005). Now neither FST nor South Belfast are safe. However, North Belfast is not a Unionist safe seat either. However, assuming East Belfast reverts to the Unionists later, it is not inconceivable that the 8 nationalists hold their seats next time and that Gerry Kelly gain North Belfast. Were this to happen, the balance between unionists and nationalists would be 9 seats each. I am not saying it will happen in the next election, assuming Parliament sits 4 years (it won't if it is any shorter) - but there is a strong possibility that this will soon be the status quo in the North, notwithstanding the 'ifs' and 'buts'. This is a big change in the once solid unionist monolith.
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