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Post by Young Ireland on May 31, 2017 19:46:29 GMT
As you may know, Teresa May has called a general election for next week. It appears that she is going to increase her majority significantly, though Labout do appear to be catching up. This is unfortunate, as the latter have promised to extend the Abortion Act to Northern Ireland, meaning that a Tory victory is the best possible scenario. As for Scotland, I know the SNP are not the most Catholic of parties, but one can only feel sympathetic towards the Scottish people, since they are now being taken out of the EU against their will with apparently no option to secede. As for Northern Ireland, I'm not sure how things will turn out there?
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Post by hibernicus on May 31, 2017 20:45:01 GMT
It's not impossible for May to pull defeat from the jaws of victory - she hasn't had a good campaign - but I suspect it's unlikely. She is pulling back from economic ultra-liberalism, but how much of that is demagogy I can't say. Every time I think the Tories are so bad they can't be better than Labour, Labour gets worse. With the departure of the most prominent remaining Lib Dem pro-life MP (Dr John Pugh, Southport) and the abject capitulation of their leader Tim Farron on abortion (which he has declared a fundamental principle) and whether sodomy is a sin (not a crime), we can safely say that the Liberal Nonconformist Conscience is defunct. The SNP has a very strong secularist element (including Nicola Sturgeon) but it has been picking up Catholic support from Labour in recent years (one of their MPs caused a controversy by wearing ashes to Westminster last Ash Wednesday). UKIP are in chaos. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are incurably politically correct. In Northern Ireland SF will probably make gains from the SDLP, and the UUP are under threat (Kernohan in South Antrim has been emphasising social liberalism, as has Beattie the Upper Bann candidate,whereas Tom Elliott in Fermanagh South Tyrone has been appealing for Catholic support on the abortion issue.) Alliance hope to gain East and possibly South Belfast. The DUP might possibly make gains, but they are suffering from Arlene Foster's ineptitude - she has really blown it, which is a shame as I thought she looked promising. Mind you, it would be an odd turn-up if the DUP actually held the balance of power, with some help from SF abstentionism. Methinks that our nearest neighbours, with their whole constitutional position on edge, are about to send in the clowns. Outlook gloomy. Now you know one reason why I regularly pray for the intercession of Blessed Alexander Crow to be preserved from despair.
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Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on Jun 1, 2017 8:49:43 GMT
There could well be a wipe out of the SDLP. South Down is too close to call and Alasdair McDonnell is very vulnerable in South Belfast. These could be two SF gains and John Finucane is going to be breathing down Nigel Dodd's neck in North Belfast. The SDLP have to some extent facilitated the Shinners by putting up no hopers there and in Fermanagh South Tyrone. So could be bad for SDLP and UUP, not great for DUP and good for SF. Possible Alliance gain in East Belfast too, South Belfast a wider battle ground. Very worrying overall.
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Post by hibernicus on Jun 10, 2017 22:23:47 GMT
Looks like the results in GB have been bad for social conservatives. The loss of Rob Flello is particularly sad since there are not that many pro-life Labour MPs left. www.catholicherald.co.uk/commentandblogs/2017/06/09/this-was-a-grim-night-for-christians-and-pro-lifers-in-parliament/ The failure of the attempt by the Tories to appeal to socially conservative working-class voters (it had some effect but Thatcherism is not so easily forgotten in the North of England) also suggests they will move back to a more economic libertarian/social liberal position. The way in which the left-liberals (including many Tories) are proclaiming that DUP policy on abortion and same-sex unions is morally equivalent to fascism and witch-burning is a striking example of how libertine the British political milieu has begone. Meanwhile, SF's struggle to disfranchise Northern Irish nationalists at Westminster have succeeded (partly because some unionists who previously voted tactically in Foyle and South Down treated the election as a referendum on the Union and voted for no-hope unionist candidates; check the figures and you'll see a fraction of the unionist vote could have saved Durkan and Ritchie, while SF have finally succeeded in their effort to hand South Belfast to the DUP). The Westminster representation is now completely polarised (except that the DUP haven't yet taken North Down). I suspect the DUP will focus on economic benefits for their constituents, but I wonder how long the gravy train will last? What a mess. Tom Elliott's defeat in Fermanagh South Tyrone is also a loss on the pro-life issue.
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Post by hibernicus on Jun 13, 2017 20:02:25 GMT
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Post by annie on Jun 15, 2017 12:06:00 GMT
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Post by hibernicus on Jun 18, 2017 17:51:46 GMT
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