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Post by Beinidict Ó Niaidh on Apr 15, 2010 10:56:28 GMT
Any predictions as to how they are going to go? From a global point of view - it is Cameron's to lose (which is not beyond possibility). But there could be a hung parliament or other permutations. Equally interesting is the performance of the SNP and Plaid Cymru in their countries and the Northern Ireland outcome.
I hope there is no danger of the BNP taking a seat.
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Post by hibernicus on Apr 15, 2010 12:10:03 GMT
Cameron's to lose, I agree, but it is not outside his skills to actually lose it. I don't think Brown can win; basically he is fighting to limit the damage to Labour so that any Conservative government is as weak as possible and paves the way for a Labour comeback.
The BNP's main chances are in East London and in Stoke; fortunately they are run by incompetents with tainted pasts and suffer chronic personality disputes, and the electoral system works against them.
The SNP and Plaid are forming an alliance to maximise their input; Plaid may be hindered by the fact that they have formed a coalition with Labour in Wales, and the SNP has peaked a bit because the shine is coming off Salmond's government after its honeymoon and the financial crisis has strengthened the argument that the resources of the UK were necessary to bail out the Scottish economy. (The SNP used to cite Iceland as a small country making a big success of self-government; they don't do that any more.) I still expect a few SNP gains, however.
The splits and repositionings on the Unionist side make it a difficult election to read in Northern Ireland, but I suspect it'll be pretty much as was. These are the seats to watch:
NORTH ANTRIM - Will Jim Allister defeat Ian Paisley Junior? If he can't TUV hasn't much of a future; if he wins the DUP will have a lasting thorn in the side.
SOUTH ANTRIM Reg Empey has a good chance of beating Willie McCrea, and I suspect he will. If he loses the UUP are on the road to final collapse.
FERMANAGH-SOUTH TYRONE Will the SDLP hold onto enough nationalist votes to give the seat to the independent unionist, or will tactical voting allow Gildernew to hold on for Sinn Fein? Don't know, though I suspect the latter.
SOUTH BELFAST Will Alasdair McDonnell hold on for the SDLP or will the Unionists combine to put him out? I suspect the former as the Unionists are squabbling among themselves and seem unlikely to unite.
SOUTH DOWN Will the SDLP hold Eddie McGrady's seat or will it fall to SF? If the latter, and if McDonnell falls, the SDLP are in big trouble with only one MP (in Foyle).
STRANGFORD Can the UUP benefit from the Iris Robinson scandal to take her old seat? They have a chance, but I suspect they won't do it - one of their local councillors has jumped ship to support the DUP replacement Jim Shannon, who is pretty well known.
Pretty much as was, I suspect, unless there is a rip tide below the surface. Sylvia Hermon will hold North Down as an Independent.
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Post by Hemingway on Apr 20, 2010 11:40:02 GMT
I think the early surge of support in the polls for Clegg and the LD's is likely to fade. I honestly think its the British publics' reaction to a disatisfaction with the Labour and Tory parties. Although, having said that, he was well received in the first televised leaders debate.
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Post by hibernicus on Apr 20, 2010 17:37:40 GMT
I agree - the Lib Dems are basically a bunch of opportunists who will promise anythign to get votes at local level and move left, right or centre as circumstances suit. The question, though, is whether the electorate are sufficiently disenchanted with the other parties, and sufficiently detached from traditional tribal voting, to give them a try. I think Clegg will fade, but he has consolidated their base - so it's now less likely the Tories will win the Lib Dem seats in the south they need for an overall majority, and the chances of a hung parliament have increased.
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Post by Michael O'Donovan on Apr 21, 2010 20:59:16 GMT
My main interest is in Buckingham, where Nigel Farage of UKIP is standing against the horrible little Speaker, Bercow. I have just read Farage's book Fighting Bull with great enjoyment. Regrettably he is an atheist, but on politics, government and the EU his instincts are sound.
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Post by hibernicus on Apr 22, 2010 9:53:57 GMT
Before getting too nethusiastic about Mr. Farage, note Peter Hitchens' recent column pointing out that he favours the legalisation of drugs. Mr. Bercow has gone from ultra-right to ultra-left in terms of his position within the Conservative Party, so he would be no great loss; someone who switches to the extent he has (he tied his wagon to Portillo's star and has been at a bit of a loose end since its final fizzle) will always appear dodgy. Can you tell us more about Farage's views, Michael?
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Post by hibernicus on Apr 22, 2010 9:55:01 GMT
BTW this morning's British papers show the Labour and tory spindoctors opening up a massive barrage on Clegg's views; it iwll be interesting to see hwo well he stands up to it.
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Post by Alaisdir Ua Séaghdha on Apr 22, 2010 11:06:13 GMT
From my point of view, the nightmare scenario in regard to the British General Election is a hung parliament with a minority government dependent on DUP votes.
I think the greatest advantage that Lee Clegg could have is not the sort of vote the polls predict, but a situation where even if the LDs lose seats, that they have the balance of power in a hung parliament (I agree with Hemmingway and have a certain sympathy with Hibernicus' view - the LDs have had the tremendous advantage of not being in power). That may happen and I am not sure it is a good thing either. However, the LDs are a threat to the Conservatives in the south of England as the SNP and the Plaid are to Labour in Scotland and Wales - all challenge the major parties in areas of their heartland which it is necessary to capture to form a strong government.
I didn't consider UKIP - but having a multi-party parliament for once would make quite a change. However UKIP, like the BNP, are marginal. The LDs and before them the Liberal-SDP had little enough influence, let alone SNP/SDLP/Plaid/UUP/DUP and whoever else I might be missing.
In regard to the North, I don't question anything in Hibernicus' analysis. Unionist fragmentation could see Nigel Dodds lose votes in North Belfast, but it would only mean anything if significant numbers of SDLP supporters went to Gerry Kelly, which isn't going to happen. On the other hand, Alasdair McDonnell is likely to retain his South Belfast seat due to the same fragmentation - I didn't believe this likely when he took the seat four years ago. Fermanagh-South Tyrone is much more delicate from a nationalist point of view, but I think Michelle Gildernew likely to hold the seat. I agree with Hibernicus analysis - Reg Empey must gain South Antrim to keep the UUP in business (Rev William McCrea is a DUP figure I particularly dislike. I particularly recall him sharing a platform with the late Billy Wright 'King Rat' before the latter's imprisonment and murder by the INLA. I don't condone the INLA murder of Wright in the least, no matter how nasty Wright was). A loss in either South Belfast or South Down is a serious blow to the SDLP - a loss in both would result in devestation, particularly as South Down will go to SF and make them by far the dominant nationalist party.
On the other hand it is interesting to see how much the political map of the North changed since the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985. At that time, the only seats in nationalist hands were Folye (John Hume) and West Belfast (Gerry Adams). The representation has gone steadily up since then, noting the SDLP took 4 seats in 1992 when Joe Hendron unseated Gerry Adams. Yet constituencies like North Belfast have much finer population balances than before. One wonders if there is a domino effect in place here? However, both South Belfast and Fermanagh-South Tyrone could easily revert to Unionists at present.
I should admit to a love-hate relationship with the SDLP. I don't particularly like them and am not inspired by them, but in a climate where I am not going to vote Unionist, Alliance or SF, who am I left with?
Another issue, to return to the main contest (to provide a government for Britain), I note that Cameron is courting the religious vote. Can he be trusted?
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Post by Michael O'Donovan on Apr 29, 2010 22:05:38 GMT
Can you tell us more about Farage's views, Michael? As you have pointed out, he is in favour of legalising drugs. This fits in with his generally libertarian outlook. Contrary to the usual allegations against UKIP, he shows no sign of racial prejudice or inordinate nationalism. Having made a lot of money as a banker, he can afford to indulge himself in marginal politics. He is an instinctive rebel against authority and regulation, but I have the impression that one of his strongest motives is boyish glee at annoying the great and good. He is brave and engaging but he is not a serious, profound or substantial man. All in all, I think it is good that someone as energetic as Farage is there to mock and undermine the European Project.
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Post by hibernicus on May 5, 2010 10:46:02 GMT
I have my doubts about whether Cameron can be trusted; his "making the Tories representative of modern Britain" shtick and the increasing centralisation of control over party candidates have helped to move Britain a long way towards formally outlawing the expression of some aspects of Christian teaching on sexual morality. (Admittedly this is a wider trend nationally and internationally). All the British parties are more secularist than they used to be; the Lib Dems used to have a provincial Nonconformist contingent a generation ago which has pretty much died out, and the old-style Catholic or Nonconformist Christian Socialist/labourite is also pretty much on the way out. One intersting detail is that the SNP (which for much of its career was seen as having an anti-Catholic element, though there were some high-profile Catholic Scots Nats) has in recent years been making a conscious effort to appeal to Scottish Catholic voters who don't like Labour's secularism. Current position in the North seems to be that the DUP vote is down - some of it has gone to TUV but it's not clear where the rest is going, UUP have only slight benefit. DUP look like holding on to Strangford, and possibly to North Antrim though it will be very tight. SDLP likely to hold South Belfast. Fermanagh-South Tyrone and South Antrim are too close to call.
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Post by Askel McThurkill on May 5, 2010 12:02:04 GMT
The problem with Cameron is that he seems to sing every tune that he expects will find a resonance with the given audience and he doesn't seem to be making much of an impact outside the Tory heartland of southern England. The sort of old-style Labour Catholic or non-conformist voter is going nowhere rather than going to the Tories. The Scottish case is interesting. I think your old style John-Cooney's-Mass-going-Celtic-supporting-first-cousin-who-has-always-voted-Labour is more likely not to vote if he/she doesn't like some of Labour's policies than to vote SNP. This still might give them a necessary edge.
With regards to some of the Northern constituency, one might ask do many nationalist voters detest Rev William MacCrae so much (as, for example, I do) that they will vote Reg Empey to get him out. Well, time will tell.
Fermanagh-South Tyrone has always been the delicate Nationalist seat, but I am surprised that the SDLP are up for maintaining South Belfast - even if I think that the population shift in both North and South Belfast will drift slowly in the nationalist direction in coming years. However at present, Gerry Kelly is unlikely to unseat Nigel Dodds.
But to turn to South Down, which is a key battle in regard to the nationalist vote - will Margaret Ritchie take Eddie McGraddie's seat or will it go to Caitriona Ruane?
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Post by hibernicus on May 5, 2010 12:19:16 GMT
General view is that Margaret Ritchie will hold it, not least because the large Unionist minority who have no hope of electing a MP of their own will vote tactically for the SDLP. Ruane is widely disliked by Unionists because of her position as Sinn Fein cultural czar, not least in relation to her abolition of selective education. She also lives outside the constituency, whereas Ritchie is local. The Unionists have not been able to unite behind a single candidate in South Belfast because, (a) although the DUP are clearly the lead Unionist party and the UUP candidate is little-known, there is a significant Protestant middle-class vote that won't go DUP; Anna Lo of Alliance, who I'm sorry to say strongly supports extending the abortion act to Ni, may pick up some of this vote (b) MacDonnell does not provoke the sort of hostility that would impel Unionists to make getting him out their first priority, in the way that Willie McCrea impels nationalist voters to back whoever is likeliest to take him out. In Fermanagh-South Tyrone the UUP could justify a pan-unionist pact because they argued Gildernew as an abstentionist was not properly representing the constituency at Westminister, and because of the whiff of sulphur that still clings to SF as a party (though not to Gildernew, who is peronally fairly popular and regarded as a good agriculture Minister). They can't argue the same case against McDonnell and the SDLP, and a deal there would ahve called into question their alliance with the Tories (for what it's worth).
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Post by hibernicus on May 5, 2010 12:24:10 GMT
Askel is right about Cameron's southern, metropolitan image. I wonder how things would have developed if David Davis, who is much more the Northerner and self-made man, had won the leadership election. One big question is whether the Lib Dem leadership can deliver all its MPs in any deal. They tend to run to the left in some constituencies and the right in others; if Clegg joins forces with Cameron, will all his left-wingers go along? If with Brown or another Labour leader, how will that sell in southern middle-class seats? The Lib Dems are pretty unprincipled and run on local messages (for example, several LD MPs in the West Country, where the EU is very unpopular because of its effects on farming and fisheries, run as Eurosceptics although the LDs are the most Europhile party). They may be about to experience the limits of how far they can get away with this.
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Post by hibernicus on May 6, 2010 15:25:52 GMT
Since Mr. Farage has been mentioned on this thread, I request your prayers for his recovery from injuries he suffered in a light airplane crash today. My final prediction on the GB election is that there will be a last-minute break in favour of the Tories by undecided voters, taking them near to or all the way to an overall majority. It seems pretty clear now Labour can't get a majority on its own, and I suspect the voters who decide at the last minute will prefer political stability in the current world economic climate. I suspect Cleggmania will dissipate and the Lib dems will make a few gains, though I could be mistaken. In NI the DUP vote is down, but I suspect the seats will stay as you were except for South Antrim, north Antrim, fermanagh-South Tyrone. I have heard rumours that the UCUNF are doing well in Upper Bann, but we'll have to wait and see. See you tomorrow to discuss the results.
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Post by hibernicus on May 10, 2010 12:58:29 GMT
The break went the other way- Labour voters who had flrted with the Lib Dems swinging back. Peter Robinson is no great loss, but Naomi Long is a pretty outspoken social liberal so this could have implications for the abortion debate in NI. TUV did worse than I expected - I thought the opinion polls would understate their support as this is usually the case with extremists, but that didn't heppen. Hard to see where they can go from here. UCUNF is clearly on its last legs. The BNP got crushed, I'm glad to see.
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